Metro Manila's condominium market continues to face a substantial inventory overhang, with around 80,000 unsold units, including approximately 32,600 ready-for-occupancy (RFO) units, according to Colliers Philippines' second-quarter 2026 report.
Residential vacancy reached 24.9% in the second quarter, with Colliers projecting it to peak at 25.6% by year-end before improving in 2027 as fewer new units enter the market. The Bay Area recorded an even higher vacancy rate of 58%, reflecting the concentration of new condominium supply in the area.
Fewer launches, rising buyer cancellations
Developers have become more cautious about introducing new projects as they prioritize selling existing inventory. Colliers recorded only 2,600 condominium launches in the first half of 2026, down 64% year on year. Net take-up also weakened, falling 60% quarter-on-quarter to 500 units in the second quarter.
One factor behind the slowdown is the difficulty buyers face when transitioning from developer financing to bank loans. Monthly payments can increase from P10,000 to P12,000 to around P40,000 to P50,000, prompting some buyers to withdraw from their purchases.
Colliers recorded approximately 9,000 cancellations from January to September, including 5,200 units under construction and 3,800 ready-for-occupancy units.
Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings reported that combined residential pre-sales of Ayala Land, SM Prime, Robinsons Land, and Megaworld declined 7% in the first half. Analyst Johann Tan said a meaningful industry recovery may not happen until late 2027.
Developers shift to affordable housing
Property developers are adjusting their strategies by delaying launches, offering flexible payment terms, and focusing more on affordable housing.
Colliers reported that economic and affordable condominiums accounted for 67% of Metro Manila's residential take-up in the first half, more than double their share a year earlier.
Megaworld also reduced its 2026 residential launch target from P65 billion to P50 billion and trimmed its capital expenditure budget from P65 billion to P55 billion.
Despite the challenges, Leechiu Property Consultants reported that unsold inventory eased from 82,900 units in the second quarter to around 80,000 in the third quarter, suggesting improved absorption.
The figures highlight a market still weighed down by oversupply, but where affordability and buyers' access to financing are increasingly shaping demand.
